For the past week, it’s been encouraging to hear that the number of new Covid-19 cases have been reduced to less than 100 per day in Malaysia.
The Ministry of Health (MoH) is hoping for that number will be reduced to a single digit per day before considering to lift the movement control order (MCO). The graph (pictured below) provided by MoH shows positive results.
A new study conducted by Singapore University of Technology and Design (SUTD) predicts that the Covid-19 situation in Malaysia might start recovering as early as 6th May 2020. This is based on SUTD’s susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) predictive modelling, adaptive and countering behaviours (individuals avoiding physical contact and governments locking down cities), plus the ecosystem’s natural limitations.
SUTD’s predictive modelling covers 28 different countries, including Malaysia. The SIR model is then based on a graphing calculator to predict that Malaysia will realise 97% of total expected epidemic cases by 6th May 2020. Take a look at the graph:
The SUTD, which previously predicted other pandemics like Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and the HIV AIDS outbreak, suggests that most parts of the world will see 97% of cases ending approximately 29th May.
Meanwhile, the study predicts Covid-19 will fully be rid of only in December 2020. Check out the study here.
Featured image: Asia Times/ Source: Astro Awani.